Today marks a very important day in the life of a red-blooded American Boy. With the first box scores of the day, Spring Training officially began today. No more stories about how some middle-of-the-road ballplayer is “in the best shape of his life,” no more erotic tales of fringe-average pitchers learning to throw new pitches, we’re actually seeing players work their way towards the start of the season. We can look at our favorite teams and judge whether or not they are primed to make positive headlines over the course of the next seven or eight months. We can watch all our heroic (or utterly non-heroic, if you’re an Alex Rodriguez fan) favorites face live competition for the first time since the last out of the World Series. Spring Training is a magic time, when every team seems to have an equal shot at winning a championship…except for those teams who clearly do not have a shot at winning more games than they lose (see: Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles).
Today the New York Mets took the field for the first time against a team that was not comprised of its own players: they beat the Orioles by a score of 9-3. Louis Castillo was the easy choice for “player of the game” honors, since he was so abysmal — and injured– last season it was a miracle to see him take three at-bats without collapsing and dying on the field. In fact, he had two hits in three at-bats, with four runs batted-in. It would appear that every baseball fan and writer expects little production from Castillo this year, but ever-so-quietly, there is a growing contingent of Mets fans who believe he is going to surprise everyone with a big year.
As for me, I am — like every other year of my life — cautiously optimistic about my beloved Mets. In each of the past two seasons they finished second in their division to the Philadelphia Phillies, and both times they should have won. Nate Silver’s PECOTA system for forecasting baseball player performance predicts that the Mets will finish with a record of 91 wins and 71 losses, three games better than those pathetic, lucky sons-of-bitches the Philadelphia Phillies. Of course, the Mets were also picked to win their division in the previous two seasons, and, well, I just told you how those seasons ended.
So, here’s why I’m (cautiously!) optimistic about this season. The Phillies, in effect, exchanged one bad outfielder for another this off-season, losing Pat Burrell through free agency to the Tampa Bay Rays and signing Raul Ibanez to a horrible and expensive three-year-long contract. Without getting into specifics, they basically lost a right-handed hitter with zero fielding skills and gained a left-handed hitter with zero fielding skills who is four years older than the other guy. The loss of righty Burrell means the heart of the team’s lineup will be decidedly left-handed, which should play well into the hands of the Mets, who will boast a starting rotation with (potentially) three lefties: Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, and Jon Neise (who could earn a spot in the rotation if Freddy Garcia is injured). Of course, the Mets also feature four lefties in their lineup, but only Carlos Delgado hits in the middle of the Mets batting order. I might be cherry picking my stats here, but I wouldn’t overlook the fact that this dichotomy exists. This is but one of my reasons why the Mets should have an edge over the Phillies and Braves this year. Also…two of their core players, Jose Reyes and David Wright, are beginning to enter their prime years. We should see great numbers from both players.
Furthermore, the Mets vastly improved their bullpen, which blew an astounding 29 games last year. Compare that to the Phillies 15 blown saves, and you see that the Mets could have potentially finished 11 games ahead of Phillies last year (29-15 = 14. 14 – 3 (the number of games they finished behind) = 11.). Also, Phillies closer Brad Lidge (who has nerves of…what’s the opposite of steal?) will absolutely, unequivocally not pitch an entire season without a blown save again. If Lidge is so much as league average, the Mets will have a very good chance at winning their division. The Mets’ addition of Francisco Rodriguez as closer should not have much of a net effect on the ball club — he’s about as reliable as Billy Wagner — but the addition of J.J. Putz as the pivotal set-up reliever (and maybe spot-closer if Rodriguez is being over-worked) does give them a huge upgrade over the cast of misfits who caused me to hurl objects at my television screen almost constantly throughout the 2008 season. My God, am I ever happy Aaron Heilman is no longer a Met. If next autumn the Mets are playing “serious October baseball,” I have no doubt that J.J. Putz will be the reason.
Speaking of annual traditions, I think it’s high-time I shut the hell up and make my predictions for this-coming baseball season:
AL EAST: Boston Red Sox
AL CENTRAL: Cleveland Indians
AL WEST: Oakland A’s
WILD CARD: Tampa Bay Rays
CY YOUNG: Felix Hernandez (SEA)
MVP: Grady Sizemore (CLE)
ROOKIE: Matt Wieters (BAL)
NL EAST: New York Mets
NL CENTRAL: Chicago Cubs
NL WEST: Arizona Diamondbacks
WILD CARD: Florida Marlins (uh…why not?)
CY YOUNG: Johan Santana (NYM)
MVP: Hanley Ramirez (FLA)
ROOKIE: Colby Rasmus (STL)
What do you think?
